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Uzbekistan
Central Asian States
Chief among Uzbekistan's foreign policy challenges is establishing
relations with the other Central Asian states, which at the beginning
of the 1990s still were simply neighboring administrative units
in the same country. The ties that emerged between Uzbekistan
and the other Central Asian states in the first years of independence
are a combination of competition and cooperation.
Because they have similar economic structures defined by a focus
on raw material extraction and cotton and by the need to divide
scarce resources such as water among them, the inherent competition
among them contains the potential for enormous strife. This condition
was emphasized, for example, in May 1993, when Uzbekistan halted
the flow of natural gas to Kyrgyzstan in response to that country's
introduction of a new currency.
The potential for strife is exacerbated by the perception of
the other Central Asian states that Uzbekistan seeks to play a
dominant role in the region. As the only Central Asian state bordering
on all the others, Uzbekistan is well placed geographically to
become the dominant power in the region. And Uzbekistan has done
little to contradict the notion that it has historically based
claims on the other Central Asian states: as the historical center
of the Quqon and Bukhoro khanates, for example, Uzbekistan believes
that it can claim parts of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakstan.
Uzbekistan's large and relatively homogeneous population provides
it a distinct advantage in exerting control over other republics.
Uzbeks also constitute a significant percentage of the populations
of the other Central Asian states. For example, roughly one-fourth
of Tajikistan's population is Uzbek, and large numbers of Uzbeks
populate southern Kyrgyzstan and southern Kazakstan. And Uzbekistan's
active role in aiding the communist government of Imomali Rahmonov
to defeat its opposition in the long-standing civil war in Tajikistan
has demonstrated that it is well prepared to use its own armed
forces--which are the best armed in Central Asia--to promote its
own strategic interests (see The Armed Forces, this ch.). The
government of Uzbekistan already has declared its right to intervene
to protect Uzbeks living outside its borders.
At the same time, however, economic and political exigencies
have also required close cooperation between Uzbekistan and the
other Central Asian states. The near collapse of their respective
economies and the need to reduce their economic dependence on
Russia have also encouraged ties among the Central Asian republics,
including Uzbekistan. Isolated from Moscow in some ways and manipulated
by Moscow in others, Uzbekistan has found it especially advantageous
to enhance relations with Kazakstan and Kyrgyzstan. In January
1994, following their formal departure from the ruble zone in
November 1993, Kazakstan and Uzbekistan agreed to create their
own economic zone to allow for free circulation of goods, services,
and capital within the two republics and to coordinate policies
on credit and finance, budgets, taxes, customs duties, and currency
until the year 2000. Although many other former republics had
made similar statements of intent, this marked the first firm
economic agreement between two former republics within the CIS.
Since its signing, this agreement has expanded its coverage for
the two charter nations and by the addition of a third signatory,
Kyrgyzstan. In April 1994, the agreement was extended among all
three former republics to abolish all customs controls; and in
July 1994, the leaders of the three states met in Almaty to agree
to a program of greater economic integration in what they have
identified as their "Unified Economic Space." This agreement produced
the first steps toward a modicum of institutional change, such
as the creation of a Central Asian Bank and an interstate council
to formalize bilateral ties. It also marked a commitment for further
expansion of direct ties.
Renewed cooperation between Uzbekistan and the other Central
Asian states also has been evidenced in areas such as joint efforts
to address the Aral Sea problem. For some time even before the
breakup of the Soviet Union, conferences and declarations by leaders
in Central Asia had called for more cooperation among the five
Central Asian republics to resolve the problem of the Aral Sea
and regional use of water resources. In December 1992, with World
Bank (see Glossary) support, President Karimov took the lead in
proposing the creation of a strong, unified interstate organization
to resolve the problems of the Aral Sea. The heads of state of
all of the Central Asian republics have met several times to coordinate
activities, and all members pledged roughly 1 percent of their
respective GDPs toward an Aral Sea fund. Although compliance has
varied, this type of constructive and unified approach to a mutual
problem remained theoretical in the early 1990s.
Data as of March 1996
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